Ceyhan Fertilizer Plant

Toros Tarım

01 Snapshot

Audit-grade Scope 1 · 2024

203,840

tCO₂ · allocated · TSRS independent assurance

iz-1 prediction (LODO)

243,209

+19% vs. truth

EU CBAM default

657,360

+222% vs. truth

95% conformal prediction interval (global, n=21): 118,183 – 500,499 tCO₂ (truth inside ✓)

95% interval restricted to fertilizer-integrated calibration set: 135,551 – 436,370 tCO₂ (truth inside ✓ · undercoverage caveat at small n)

Open printable audit summary → One-page PDF you can hand to a verifier.

02 Facility data

Company: Toros Tarım
Plant: Ceyhan Fertilizer Plant
Sector: fertilizer
City: Ceyhan
Capacity: 821,700 t/y
Label source: disclosure
Provenance: Allocated from operator group Scope 1 by a disclosed physical share (clinker tonnage / crude steel tonnage).
iz-1 runs: 5 LODO outer × 3 inner seeds = 15 total

03 Source citation

Tekfen Holding 2024 TSRS p18 × cap 0.8M/3.3M

Allocated from Toros group by capacity share 24.2%. AN/CAN.

04 Satellite cross-check

The TROPOMI flux-divergence catalog of Beirle et al. (2023, ESSD) lists a NOx source within 6.0 km of this plant:

0.113 ± 0.052 kg NOx/s (colocated source: İsken Sugözü power station)

NOx is an activity proxy independent of operator disclosure. A catalog hit within 15 km means the plant (or its colocated captive power) is bright enough in TROPOMI to register globally. This row is in the data/beirle_match_audit_grade.csv join used by iz-1 v0.1.1+.

05 Hyperspectral coverage

1 EnMAP L2A scene index this plant (1 with <1% cloud cover). Source: DLR EOC STAC. Following Borger et al. (2025), these scenes can yield direct CO₂ and NO₂ plume retrievals at ~30 m spatial resolution.

Lowest cloud cover scenes (showing top 5):

2025-11-27T08:53:46Z · cloud cover 0% · ENMAP01-____L2A-DT0000165586_20251127T085346Z_011_…

Downloads require a free DLR EOWEB account (see enmap_access_howto.md).

06 Verify / correct

If you're an operator or analyst with a more recent disclosure than what's shown above:

Open a pull request adding a row to data/tr_facility_known_emissions.csv (source).
Or email hi@barisgunaydin.com with the source PDF.
Or use the claim-your-facility form on the bench page.

Corrections that include a verifiable public source land within 24 hours. All data is Apache-2.0 licensed; methodology in paper/iz_v0.md.