Ceyhan Fertilizer Plant

1 · Facility identity

Company / operator

Toros Tarım

Plant name

Ceyhan Fertilizer Plant

Sector (CBAM scope)

fertilizer

Location

Ceyhan, Türkiye

Nameplate capacity

821,700 t/y

2 · Emission figures (tCO₂)

95% conformal prediction interval (global, n=21 calibration): 118,183 – 500,499 tCO₂. Restricted to fertilizer-integrated stratum: 135,551 – 436,370 tCO₂ (subject to small-n undercoverage).

3 · Source citation for audit-grade Scope 1

Allocated from Toros group by capacity share 24.2%. AN/CAN.

4 · Methodology (iz-1)

iz-1 is a 2-layer browser-resident MLP with WebGPU-accelerated LoRA-shaped weights, trained on TR-MRV-Bench v0 (59 Turkish CBAM-scope facilities; 21 audit-grade Scope 1 labels with operator-PDF citations). Inputs: nameplate capacity, geo-coordinates, sector + steel route one-hot, Climate-TRACE-derived capacity factor and activity, operator-disclosed capacity factor (non-leaky in LODO), and Sentinel-5P NO₂ activity proxy. Evaluation: stratified leave-one-disclosure-out with 5 outer × 3 inner = 15 seeds per held-out facility. Headline: median 87% reduction in log-MAE vs. EU CBAM default; closed-form formula (capacity × route-EF × cf) reaches the same headline within statistical noise. Independent satellite cross-check (Beirle et al. 2023, ESSD): colocated TROPOMI NOx source within 6.0 km, flux 0.113 ± 0.052 kg NOx/s.

5 · Verifier checklist

1. ☐ Confirm Scope 1 line item in the cited source matches the value above (tCO₂ basis; not CO₂-equivalent if different).
2. ☐ Verify operator's verification statement (ISO 14064-1 / TSRS / financial audit) attached to the source.
3. ☐ Cross-check capacity against latest published cement / steel / aluminum / fertilizer association registry.
4. ☐ If using iz-1 prediction as input to CBAM Article 4(2) actual-emission declaration: the prediction is a model output, not a measurement. Verifier must independently support the underlying activity data.
5. ☐ Confirm the conformal prediction interval covers the operator's claimed Scope 1.

6 · License and citation

TR-MRV-Bench v0 is Apache-2.0 licensed. The benchmark, methodology, and per-facility data are public at github.com/abgnydn/iz and iz-b0n.pages.dev. Cite: Günaydın (2026), "TR-MRV-Bench: a public per-facility emissions benchmark for Turkish CBAM-scope industry, with a physics baseline that beats the EU CBAM default by 87%."