Mersin Fertilizer Plant

Toros Tarım

01 Snapshot

Audit-grade Scope 1 · 2024

383,150

tCO₂ · allocated · TSRS independent assurance

iz-1 prediction (LODO)

213,547

-44% vs. truth

EU CBAM default

648,000

+69% vs. truth

95% conformal prediction interval (global, n=21): 103,770 – 439,457 tCO₂ (truth inside ✓)

95% interval restricted to fertilizer-integrated calibration set: 135,868 – 335,636 tCO₂ (truth outside ✗ · undercoverage caveat at small n)

Open printable audit summary → One-page PDF you can hand to a verifier.

02 Facility data

Company: Toros Tarım
Plant: Mersin Fertilizer Plant
Sector: fertilizer
City: Mersin
Capacity: 810,000 t/y
Label source: disclosure
Provenance: Allocated from operator group Scope 1 by a disclosed physical share (clinker tonnage / crude steel tonnage).
iz-1 runs: 5 LODO outer × 3 inner seeds = 15 total

03 Source citation

Tekfen Holding 2024 TSRS p18 × cap 1.5M/3.3M

Allocated from Toros group (842,174) by NAMEPLATE CAPACITY share (45.5%). Mersin has the NH₃+urea line — likely process-heavier than capacity-share allocation reflects. Medium-confidence label.

05 Hyperspectral coverage

2 EnMAP L2A scenes index this plant (1 with <1% cloud cover). Source: DLR EOC STAC. Following Borger et al. (2025), these scenes can yield direct CO₂ and NO₂ plume retrievals at ~30 m spatial resolution.

Lowest cloud cover scenes (showing top 5):

2025-07-08T09:11:55Z · cloud cover 0% · ENMAP01-____L2A-DT0000141553_20250708T091155Z_019_…
2025-07-08T09:11:50Z · cloud cover 3% · ENMAP01-____L2A-DT0000141553_20250708T091150Z_018_…

Downloads require a free DLR EOWEB account (see enmap_access_howto.md).

06 Verify / correct

If you're an operator or analyst with a more recent disclosure than what's shown above:

Open a pull request adding a row to data/tr_facility_known_emissions.csv (source).
Or email hi@barisgunaydin.com with the source PDF.
Or use the claim-your-facility form on the bench page.

Corrections that include a verifiable public source land within 24 hours. All data is Apache-2.0 licensed; methodology in paper/iz_v0.md.